Lurker > BlAcK TuRtLe

From: LeonhartFour | #114
Well, Castlevania/Halo wasn't a close match, per se, but it was an unexpected result (not the same thing as an unexpected percentage. If we want to go that route, Series Contest can beat that, too). Neither was MM/MK, but it had other sorts of implications involved. Rivalry Rumble had virtually nothing exciting about the vast majority of its matches, unless "Whoa this was even less close than we had anticipated!" counts as quality or exciting.

But I'll concede and even give you Frog/GLaDOS along with those others. You can even have X/Zero vs. Sub-Zero/Scorpion! However, there was very little debate about most of these matches, pre-or-mid-contest. Very little excitement. Not much of anything. We weren't even getting excited about the matches while they were happening. The vote totals sucking worse than anything ever has also detracts from the quality of the contest.

But if we want to include a highly debated match as a quality match, then we can include Phoenix/Gordon.

The main problem with the Rivalry Rumble is that we had 63 matches worth of suck as opposed to 31 for the Villains and Series. At least those bad contests had the decency to be over quickly.

From: Haste_2 | #050
Oh, and the x-stats that Leonhart posted...

1. Link vs. Ganondorf – 50.00%
2. Mario vs. Bowser – 42.28%
3. Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth – 41.74%
4. Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 37.51%
5. Solid Snake vs. Liquid Snake – 31.62%
6. Ryu vs. Ken Masters – 29.98%
7. Samus Aran vs. Ridley – 29.58%
8. Mega Man X vs. Zero – 28.19%
9. Big Boss vs. The Boss – 27.52%
10. Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion – 26.67%
11. Crono vs. Lavos – 26.08%
12. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik – 24.88%
13. Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily – 24.74%
14. Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker – 23.90%
15. Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo – 23.19%
16. Alucard vs. Dracula – 22.40%
17. Tidus vs. Jecht – 22.22%
18. Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O’Donnell – 21.00%
19. Frog vs. Magus – 20.94%
20. Pac-Man vs. Blinky – 20.47%
21. Chell vs. GLaDOS – 20.31%
22. Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy – 19.91%
23. Sora vs. Riku – 19.63%
24. Lloyd Irving vs. Kratos Aurion – 19.50%
25. Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth – 19.41%
26. Kratos vs. Zeus – 19.38%
27. Dante vs. Vergil – 19.30%
28. Donkey Kong vs. K. Rool – 18.94%
29. Kirby vs. Meta Knight – 18.81%
30. Raiden vs. Vamp – 18.38%
31. Jim Raynor vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 17.32%
32. Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen – 16.87%
33. Zidane Tribal vs. Kuja – 16.77%
34. Ness vs. Giygas – 16.63%
35. Luigi vs. Waluigi – 16.53%
36. Ike vs. Black Knight – 16.51%
37. Commander Shepard vs. Saren Arterius – 16.47%
38. Yuna vs. Seymour Guado – 16.40%
39. Amaterasu vs. Orochi – 16.31%
40. William B.J. Blazkowicz vs. Adolf Hitler – 15.63%
41. Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis – 15.62%
42. Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs. Rodrigo Borgia – 15.08%
43. Crash Bandicoot vs. Dr. Neo Cortex – 14.93%
44. Cecil Harvey vs. Golbez – 14.79%
45. Arthas Menethil vs. Illidian – 14.70%
46. Leon Kennedy vs. Ada Wong – 14.28%
47. Conker vs. The Great Mighty Poo – 13.40%
48. Katherine vs. Catherine – 13.38%
49. Siegfried Schtauffen vs. Nightmare – 13.24%
50. Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh – 12.85%
51. Earthworm Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt – 12.38%
52. Meat Boy vs. Dr. Fetus – 11.87%
53. Ramza Beoulve vs. Delita Hyral – 11.73%
54. The Kid vs. The Guy – 11.46%
55. Banjo vs. Gruntilda – 11.14%
56. Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow – 11.03%
57. Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious – 11.01%
58. Tom Nook vs. Crazy Redd – 10.73%
59. Laharl vs. Mid-Boss – 10.49%
60. Professor Layton vs. Don Paolo – 10.03%
61. Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat – 9.94%
62. Vyse vs. Galcian – 9.89%
63. Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck – 9.20%
64. Sol Badguy vs. Ky Kiske – 6.72%

Aside from Squall's division, they actually look pretty good to me. Everything else I could at least consider being accurate. (aside from Lloyd/Kratos). Adjusting Mario or the Trainers makes the numbers look worse to me.

So, for the most "official" stats, I vote simply adjusting Cloud/Sephiroth vs. Squall/Seifer and leaving everything else alone. At least everyone can agree on that. Moving Mario up 1-2% or something just because we are positive of Link/Mario SFF, though....I just don't think it's significant enough to really warrant doing an adjustment.

From: Xuxon | #318
for x-stats, why not just assume Mario/Pokemon SFF and Cloud/Seph = Trainers? Put Mario halfway between his raw value and adjusted based on Cloud/Seph/Trainers and assume Link/Mario SFF = Mario/Pokemon SFF. i don't see the need to think of it in any finer detail than that.

From: Liquid Wind | #023
GT isn't canon and DBZ already has the worst internal consistency of anything ever...

From: Bigwig_rah | #005

From: SuperNiceDog | #119
yay I won the guruuuu woot!

Super nice!

From: LeonhartFour | #108
That may not hold at the rate we're going.

From: FateStayAlbion | #103
Wii_TuRtLe posted...
Not sure what's up with the doom and gloom. I still think Cloud comes back with the SNV. The ASV hasn't done much so far.

Trainers have gained 150 votes in a half an hour and likely won't slow down anytime soon. Cloud should win SNV but at this pace he might be dealing with a 800-1000 vote deficit.

From: vcharon | #325
Site traffic decrease probably isn't helpful, and perhaps anyone that isn't a Nintendo fan has pretty much given up on these contests since they all have the same result. It is a little pointless to really participate if you don't like Nintendo.

From: Lopen | #445
Well, yes, but with most brackets it's just "we could swap this easy match with this difficult match" and make the decent bracket better.

This bracket it's like... necessary.

From: XIII_rocks | #443
Every bracket could be tons better with hindsight.

The frustrating thing about this bracket is it could have been much better from the start. >_>

From: HaRRicH | #476
Man, Pokemon's impressed against Mario multiple times recently. Red/Blue's currently got ~45.91% on Mario/Bowser after embarrassing Luigi/Waluigi in a debated match with 77.96%, Charizard got 54.73% on Bowser and 46.41% on Mario, Missingno got 51.51% on Yoshi after nearly doubling Toad in the vote-ins despite Mudkip and Jigglypuff, and Pokemon beat Mario in our last Nintendo-poll...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3998

...I'd take Super Mario > Pokemon, but I'd still like to see how well Pokemon could do one-on-one against Super Mario. It's building a good resume for itself in such a match.

From: Eternal_Debate | #469
I'm surprised there will be, at most, 1 perfect for what has been a fairly predictable contest. At least 2 out of 4 perfects got today's wrong (GranzonEx, based on the guru bracket entered and Sentsuizan) and the other two have different winners tomorrow. Could even be no perfects depending on who the other two perfects chose today.

Some of those on 127 before today therefore may still be in with a shot of winning, it is known at least three have Link>Mario finals.

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #311
This is over. Trainers will fall 2-3% from here to the end of the match like they do every match.

From: Team Rocket Elite | #322
This is over. Trainers will fall 2-3% from here to the end of the match like they do every match.

The standard trends are definitely against Red/Blue. The problem is they aren't currently following standard trends or Mario would have buried them after the first 5 minutes.

From: abdou | #137
And then he tripled Mega Man

...he tripled Mega Man/Wily which is much weaker than Mega Man. Link does not get 75% on Mega Man 1vs1. You can't treat the matches in this contest like 1vs1

unless you think Cloud get 62% on Snake

From: -LusterSoldier- | #469
creativename | Posted 12/15/2011 7:07:07 PM | message detail | quote
I wonder if some schools are out already? That would explain more diluted trends.

Schools won't start getting out until next week. The diluted trends are because of the ASV getting weaker over the past few years as the site continues to age older.